33,426 federal contracts expire in 24 months: where to aim

What the next 24 months look like

Federal award data shows 33,426 contracts with delivery or end dates in the next 24 months, worth $106.2 billion in total. Of those, 4,161 contracts are worth more than $1 million each, and together they account for $103.0 billion. The remaining value is spread across tens of thousands of smaller contracts.

The near term is the heaviest by count. 21,583 contracts worth $37.9 billion end in the next 6 months. That is the group where a supplier has the least time to prepare, and where many requirements may already be in planning inside the department.

An end date is a signal, not a promise. The department may extend the contract, exercise options, buy through a standing offer, or stop buying the service altogether. Treat every date as a prompt to check, not as a confirmed solicitation.

Two waves: 2027-Q1 by count, 2028-Q1 by value

Expiring value by quarter shows two very different peaks. 2027-Q1 carries $24.3 billion across 16,375 contracts — the largest count of any quarter in the window. 2028-Q1 carries $28.0 billion across 2,360 contracts, the largest value, concentrated in far fewer, larger requirements.

The contrast matters for how you prepare. A quarter with 16,375 expiring contracts is a volume game: many smaller recompetes, each needing a fast, repeatable bid process. A quarter with 2,360 contracts worth $28.0 billion is a targeting game: fewer opportunities, larger values, longer sales cycles and more emphasis on past performance and teaming.

The quieter quarters are not empty. 2026-Q4 holds $13.0 billion across 4,938 contracts, and 2028-Q3 holds $15.1 billion across 3,435 contracts. 2028-Q4 is nearly empty in this window at $239.7 million across 55 contracts, which reflects how few awards have end dates set that far out, not a collapse in buying.

If you sell to government, the practical read is this: start now on the 2027-Q1 group, and start relationship and capture work on the 2028-Q1 group at the same time, because large requirements take longer to shape.

Which departments hold the expiring value

Two departments dominate. National Defence has 5,341 expiring contracts worth $41.7 billion. Public Services and Procurement Canada has 10,307 expiring contracts worth $40.0 billion — more than double the contract count of National Defence for slightly less value, which means smaller average contract sizes and more individual recompetes to track.

Below those two, the picture splits into large IT and services buyers and smaller, specialised buyers. Shared Services Canada has 1,688 contracts worth $6.9 billion. Veterans Affairs Canada has only 84 contracts but $3.1 billion, a small number of very large requirements. Fisheries and Oceans Canada has 1,037 contracts worth $2.1 billion, and Employment and Social Development Canada has 561 contracts worth $1.7 billion.

The rest of the top ten is a mix of operational and program buyers: Correctional Service of Canada (1,478 contracts, $1.2 billion), Canadian Space Agency (174 contracts, $1.2 billion), Canada Border Services Agency (327 contracts, $1.1 billion) and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (775 contracts, $801.3 million).

For a supplier, the department list is a targeting tool. If your past performance is with a department on this list, you already have a reason to call them about a specific expiring contract. If it is not, the list tells you where the volume of upcoming work sits and which departments are worth building a first reference with.

Categories where the money is

Among categories with 50 or more expiring contracts, Informatics Professional Services leads at 207 contracts worth $1.7 billion, followed closely by information technology consultation services at 207 contracts worth $1.5 billion. Both categories carry high value in services work that many suppliers can bid on.

Architectural engineering follows at 62 contracts worth $1.3 billion, and telecommunications - voice service at 156 contracts worth $1.0 billion. Computer services is the largest by count in the top ten at 882 contracts worth $825.1 million, and Software is close behind at 884 contracts worth $667.3 million.

Two categories stand out for non-IT suppliers. Social rehabilitation services for prisoners has 240 contracts worth $744.9 million, and marine construction services has 77 contracts worth $627.4 million. Nonresidential building construction services adds 281 contracts worth $360.6 million, and ADP software adds 489 contracts worth $307.8 million.

The pattern to note is that high contract counts and high values do not always travel together. Informatics Professional Services has 207 contracts for $1.7 billion; ADP Software has 489 contracts for $307.8 million. If you want fewer, larger bids, aim at the first group. If you want repeatable volume, the second group is where the count sits.

A quarter of this value was awarded without competition

26.1% of the expiring contracts were originally awarded without competition. That is the single most useful number for a supplier deciding where to invest bid effort. A non-competitive award that is now expiring is a requirement where the department has bought before and may need to buy again, and where no competitive process has yet tested the market.

Non-competitive does not mean the recompete will be open. The department may extend, exercise options, or rely on an existing standing offer. But it does mean the incumbent position was not established through a competition, which is often where a new supplier has the best chance of getting a requirement opened up.

30,487 of the 33,426 expiring contracts have a procedure recorded. That leaves a group where the procedure is not shown in the data, and you should not assume anything about how those were awarded.

The practical move is to sort your target list by two flags: value and whether the original award was competitive. High-value, non-competitive expiries are where early contact with the department and a clear statement of capability can change whether a solicitation happens at all.

How to work the 24-month window

Build a target list from the data, not from memory. Filter to contracts ending in the next 24 months, then rank by value and by department. Start with the 4,161 contracts worth more than $1 million, because they hold $103.0 billion of the $106.2 billion total. A list of a few hundred names is manageable; a list of 33,426 is not.

Work backwards from the end date. For a large requirement, begin capture 12 to 18 months before the end date: research the incumbent's scope, confirm the department's operational need, and decide whether to bid alone or team. For the 2027-Q1 wave of 16,375 contracts, that preparation window is already open. For the 2028-Q1 wave of $28.0 billion, you have more runway but the requirements are larger and slower to shape.

Prioritise the 26.1% that were awarded without competition. These are the contracts where the department has not recently run a competition, so your outreach is more likely to be received as useful market information rather than as an interruption.

Match your category to the numbers. If you sell IT services, the informatics professional services category holds $1.7 billion and IT consultation services holds $1.5 billion. If you sell construction or engineering, architectural engineering ($1.3 billion) and marine construction services ($627.4 million) are the largest pools. If you sell software, the software category holds $667.3 million across 884 contracts and ADP software holds $307.8 million across 489 contracts.

Check the department's actual plans before you commit bid resources. An end date does not guarantee a solicitation. Confirm whether the department intends to extend, exercise options, use a standing offer, or stop buying. Where you cannot confirm, treat the opportunity as unverified and keep your pursuit costs low until a notice appears.

Track the quarters as they approach. 2026-Q4 ($13.0 billion, 4,938 contracts) and 2027-Q1 ($24.3 billion, 16,375 contracts) are the immediate priorities. Diarise 2027-Q2 ($8.7 billion, 2,563 contracts) and 2027-Q3 ($9.9 billion, 1,659 contracts) for the following planning cycle, and set a review point 18 months before 2028-Q1 so the $28.0 billion wave does not arrive unplanned.